Recent reports have revealed that Australia’s protection visa (asylum) system is close to breaking point. According to News Corp Australia (7 September), as at 31 July there were 98,979 people who had been refused protection visas but remain in the country, alongside another 27,100 applications still awaiting decision. A significant share of new applications are now coming from India and China, drawing widespread public concern.

This mounting figure not only challenges policy execution, but also exposes structural flaws in Australia’s migration and asylum system. Below we examine the data, underlying causes, risks, and possible reforms.

Source: Internet

Numbers Under Pressure

• Refused but still in Australia: 98,979 people (as at 31 July)
• Awaiting decision: around 27,100 cases
• Protection visa applications last financial year: 23,576 lodged, with 4,036 granted and 24,924 refused (some duplication across reporting periods)
• Actual removals: Between 1 July 2024 and 30 June 2025, just 162 people were deported, averaging little more than a dozen a month

These statistics are consistent with claims that almost 100,000 people are stuck in limbo. Analysts note that while applications from Indian and Chinese students have surged, the vast majority are being refused.

Since 2015, unresolved refusals have continued to pile up. Former Immigration Deputy Secretary Abul Rizvi has warned that student visa holders turning to asylum is a growing trend, and unless the backlog is cleared urgently, the system will collapse under its own weight.

Systemic Faultlines

1. Blurred visa categories

While asylum claims once came mostly from visitor visa holders or boat arrivals, an increasing share now comes from student visa holders and PALM (Pacific Australia Labour Mobility) workers. First-year dropout rates of more than 50% at some universities suggest the student visa is being used as a “stepping stone”.

2. High cost of deportation

Removing one individual can cost tens of thousands of dollars, making successive governments reluctant to allocate the hundreds of millions required to address the issue.

3. Lengthy review and appeals

Initial refusals are often followed by applications to the AAT or Federal Court, prolonging cases for years and fuelling the backlog.

4. Legal precedent

The 2024 High Court case ASF17 v Commonwealth affirmed that so long as removal remains possible, rejected asylum seekers can remain in detention indefinitely, further compounding the strain.

Riverwood’s Insights & Advice

This issue is not just about “numbers refused and numbers stuck”, but about systemic design, resource allocation, and Australia’s role as a migration destination. For those genuinely planning to study or migrate to Australia, we recommend:

• Avoid relying on asylum as a fallback: Entering on a student visa and later claiming protection carries extreme legal, policy and ethical risks.
• Stay across policy changes: Proposals such as reverse-order processing and tighter agent regulation are on the horizon – flexibility is essential.
• Prepare legally: If refused, ensure you understand your appeal rights and timelines. Protection visa appeals require careful handling.
• Focus on legitimate pathways: Skilled migration, employer sponsorship and regional nominations remain the most sustainable routes.
• Diversify your planning: If your profile allows, consider parallel strategies (e.g. New Zealand or Canada) to reduce reliance on one system.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us at Riverwood Migration (Email: enquiry@riverwoodmigration.com), or book a consultation. We are committed to providing transparent and professional migration services to help you secure your visa and achieve your goal of moving to Australia.